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Showing posts from June, 2017

Review: 28-06-2017

Bittrex Account:  3.73BTC. Poloniex Account:  1.6BTC. PnL:  +0.33BTC. Definitely activity on the coins seems to be easing recently. I definitely want to re-iterate to myself that there is still opportunity on my core strategy; I just need to be more diligent with monitoring it. I mean I made roughly 2 trades on bittrex since last review (2 days) and that's amounted to 0.33BTC. That's NZ$1000 and I consider that not much opportunity (probably missed a bunch as well). Am still holding a core ETH short at poloniex and have been scalping around the position. It is interesting to note that I am now up roughly the same on my scalps as I am on my "core" position. Singles do add up to home runes. A good reminder.

Review: 26-06-2017

Bittrex Account Balance:  3.4BTC. Withdrew 1BTC from here. Poloniex Account Balance:  1.34BTC. PnL:  -2.79BTC. Not much activity recently. Bag-held FLDC for much longer than I should have; but it's somewhat of a moot point. Big change in recent times is attitude. Have been trading the coins for about 6 weeks, and in that time have turned $350 into roughly $20k+. I have always thought I would start withdrawing when I make a "life changing" amount of money. If I can replicate recent success over coming weeks, I should be able to pay off my trading debts within 6 weeks (with constant profit withdrawals); so will be constantly withdrawing pnl (above 5BTC on bittrex). The thing I like about this is that it removes the need for hedges etc because 5BTC is $15k roughly, which isn't quite significant enough to worry about hedging.

Review: 22-06-2017

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Bittrex Account Value:  7.45BTC. Poloniex Account Value:  1.08BTC. PnL:  +0.93BTC. Note: Quite lucky with timing of review as the one I am balls deep in (FLDC) had a big recovery rally in the last hour. Since last review bittrex account peaked at roughly 8 and bottomed at 5. So massive, massive lesson... When a coin goes absolutely mental, I need to check if it's listed on multiple exchanges. In this case FLDC was really liquid on poloniex, so I was incorrectly trading it based off bittrex's price action (which had a flash spike). Need to bear this in my for future trading, as the price action on each exchange was vastly different. Pretty cool that, it's takes a literal error in judgement to nearly get me to take a loss on my strategy. Anyway was about to take the loss, but risk-reward made sense to hold on (since prices were now aligned between exchanges). Other thing was that it was literally nearing on float rotation. Note: Didn't get a chance to withd...

Review: 21/6/17

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Bittrex Account Value:  6.58BTC. Poloniex Account Value:  1.02BTC. PnL:  +3.63BTC. Got a little reckless with sizing, especially given was a directional trade - this shows in the pnl because the trade worked out. However, there were also some excellent scalps that I was able to get good size on. Point being I need to be careful not to get too reckless given success. Am well due for a decent drawdown. On this note, am currently pulling out 1BTC. Not because I want to, but I feel I need to, and that it's prudent. Opening up the poloniex account has been interesting; but am somewhat disappointed. I thought I would be able to trade on leverage against the USDTs, so while the shorting option is great. It's not quite what I was hoping. PnL: CANN: +0.86. DOPE: +2.07. FAIR: +0.087. GEO: +0.377. THC: +0.515. Definitely worth making the observation that I went balls deep recklessly on DOPE, yet I still made nearly as much on CANN. Oh and t...

Low Float Sympathy Play DOPE 21/6

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Title:  Low Float Sympathy Play Strategy Description:  This is adapted from sympathy plays on stocks, but it played out literally to perfection this time... So I would say it transitions pretty well. Situation is that there is a coin that is going mental, talking 200%+. This coin can be considered the leader; and up for various reasons. Looking for coins that have similar qualities. In this case CANN (CannabisCoin) was the leader. CANN was already up roughly 100-200% but then volume started pouring into it like crazy and it went from up 200% to up 400-800%. Note the times, DOPE had already reacted a little bit to the CANN move, but the secondary move started after the CANN one. One thing I don't like about this play is that DOPE had roughly 50-100BTC volume at the time I was initiating a position; so going to be very difficult to liquidate if it doesn't work out. Side note: All the marijuana coins moved off this move, not just DOPE. So it may be worth creating a "r...

Bull Flat Above Previous High Breakout - ANS 20/6

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Title:  Bull Flag Above Previous High Breakout Strategy Description:  Often it can be risky to buy breakouts, especially when there is no clean consolidation below the level. As such I usually avoid buying breakouts; as I tend to get too much fomo, and therefore struggle to maintain discipline on executing on the cleaner ones vs the not so clean ones. This setup offers an excellent way to get in on a coin breaking out, that is showing strength and could potentially go parabolic. To extend on this. My favourite setup is when a strong coin provides an amazing sized washout to get in. If the coin is holding trend can use that as a good risk-reward entry for the predominant trend, or can scalp out of it for 10-20%. When the coin doesn't offer the washout after a strong move, it's a sign that there's more strength to come. Even better is that a coin like this will often have great volume (so can size in), and there is a possibility that already have a position on from low...

Review: 20-06-2017

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Account Value:  3.97BTC. PnL:  +2.09BTC. Obviously a completely monster day! Some moments of recklessness but overall was actually just pretty solid trading. The coins I was trading were super liquid as well which helped. And compared to yesterday I managed to nail the 10% moves on them, rather than scalp out. They were super liquid as well, doing well over $10m volume so today would have been perfectly scalable as well which is cool! Side note: Will withdraw another 1BTC when I get to 5BTC, and probably put about 1BTC over into poloniex. Should only need 1 over there as can use leverage. PnL: 1ST: +1BTC. ANS: +1.26BTC. IOP: +0.095BTC. PTOY: +0.175BTC. XRP: +0.056BTC. And currently in DOPE which I have got too reckless on and may take a reasonable hit... So many trades that would be a lot to go through each one. Will archive a breakout play that I took, that I think is a great directional breakout trade; compared to just buying the n...

Review: 19-06-2017

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Account Value:  1.88. PnL:  +0.29. Was pretty surprised at how much pnl I had. Sort of felt like I was just grinding and not making a whole lot of money - without the review I would have been getting frustrated. PnL: ANS: +0.17BTC. Interesting that this is bigger than I thought it would be. Never really made too many big (sized) trades on this. DCR: +0.01BTC. Just a wee scalp that gave me a bit of trouble so ditched. DRACO: +0.01BTC. Volume not really there so this was about as big as I could do it. ENRG: +0.02BTC. Kept a little bit of this because I think it could 100% in the next few days. Soo illiquid though and the big mistake of the day going too big on this. PTOY: +0.045BTC. SC: +0.02BTC. Would like to keep this one but for now just scalping dips. 1ST: Not counting because still in a rather big btfd trade. So overall really good day. There were some very scalable moments, but unfortunately never really nailed a big 10%+ type t...

Review: 18-06-2017

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Account Value:  1.59BTC. PnL:  -0.36BTC. First real decent loss, and bit of a pain it happened on two at the same time. Have been waiting for this to happen and bit of a relief that it was handled okay. Probably big takeaway from all of this is that I nailed the wash on LGD to 7.5 but was over-commited elsewhere (VRC) so wasn't able to do the size I wanted. Would have actually been a net profitable trade if I got this; and was paying enough attention to flip it on the pop as well. Note: I ditched VRC before the pop; but was forced to take the losses on both (definitely didn't want them to extend any further).

Review: 16-06-2017

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Account Value:  1.95BTC. Withdrew 1BTC. PnL:  +0.07BTC. Currently running down quite a bit on two positions. Pnl is made up of the LMC being filled on pop, and the running losses (with some locked in profit) on VRC/LGD. Next review will be after the weekend as I don't plan to make many trades in next 24 hours, have something on; and appear to be slightly run-down. Only thing worth mentioning for today is that had I been on the platform when LGD made it's big move I actually may have caught it - gave the nice washout etc. Sign that automatic scanners be handy?

Review: 15-06-2017

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Account Value:  2.88BTC. PnL:  +0.14BTC. Really solid day, corrected yesterdays mistake of missing the grinder plays, which is more or less the sole reason I am up on the day. PnL Breakdown: INFX - +0.088BTC. LMC - ~ -0.10BTC. Trade still in progress so will see how it pans out. Liquidation pnl is prob lower. QRL - +0.118BTC. SWIFT - +0.058BTC. XST - +0.029BTC. ZEC - ~ -0.05BTC. As can see traded a lot of different coins, and did a great job of getting all the grinder setups. It was a bit of a shame cause they all seemed to occur at the same time, so was unable to smash them. Again, just shows I can't withdraw too much until I could do them all at once. Of course, I need to withdraw a little to profit take, and to get my poloniex account.. So bit of a dilemma. Todays big lesson comes down to liquidity. QRL I could have done 10-20BTC trades without any increased (liquidity) risk. SWIFT, INFX, and XST could have been bigger (because they wer...

Review: 14-06-2017

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Account Value:  2.74BTC PnL:  +0.14BTC Missed quite a few opportunities today because I was holding PKB. Definitely a good lesson there - this is especially the case while I'm still small enough that I can execute on these "grinder" type plays. However, I am quite happy with how I ended up closing out the PKB trade. Took a couple of trades today but because of aforementioned problem with PKB didn't have much size on them anyway. In terms of pnl: - Lost a little bit from PKB. ZEC trend trade paid out roughly 0.12BTC. - Made about 0.04BTC from SWFT and QRL (these the ones I would have crushed if it weren't for PKB). - About 0.01BTC from DGB (but this was a scalable trade so it's okay). All-in-all I think I could have easily pulled in around 0.3BTC ++ (maybe even up to 1BTC depending on fills) but am happy with the lessons I learned. Lessons: (1) Need to have minimal withdrawals until my textbook play: "Buy washout on big percentage gainer...

Review: 13-06-2017

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Account Value:  2.60BTC @ 5:30am NZT 14/6/17. Roughly breakeven past 24 hours, perhaps a slight negative. Today first day recording this, so don't know exact profit over the past 24 hours. Definitely an under-performance over the past 24 hours. Really messed up PKB, and scratched out some ZEC (around 1160) to buy more PKB. Now holding the bag on PKB to some extent. AEON by far the best trade where it was solidly planned, and very textbook. Lessons: (1) Continue following the coins that I snag great washouts on. Likely opportunities in the near future on similar washes. (2) Anticipate natural oscillations of coin and enter there. Even the more liquid ones have decent 5-10% oscillations which are a great way to cover risk. (3) Focus on good entries, ignore directional bias. AEON:  Super textbook trade that really happy with. As usual don't have enough size on trades like this, and liquidity problem somewhat apparent. After the push around 8am from 3.5 to 5.5 I pu...

Scalping the First Wash on Big Percentage Gainer

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Should note the similarities here compared to scalping against the trend. Also note that this isn't the best example, but one of few I have on hand. Note that this can be a great way to recycle some of position if expect it to go onto new highs. But the actual high probability setup is to sell all into pop. Very important to remember that you are better off catching 5 of these (with near 100% probability), then trying to catch a big 50-100% move. The only time I have ever messed up this setup is when I got fomo near the top and bought a little bit there (and even then I have managed to bring the entire trade to scratch). The way I like to think of this trade is that the big percentage gainers go up on "air", and the moment a big seller hits it collapses, before buyers resume. It is pretty important to have the order entries in place so that you get hit on the "collapse" rather than trying to react and buy some when it happens. Note: It can sometim...

Scalping the More Liquid Coins Counter-Trend

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Buying a downtrend is generally to be avoided. However, there can be some great lessons by implementing a methodology that survives a downtrend and thus should profit under most circumstances. One of the underlying features of these coins is the incredible volatility. Thus fading the volatility is a profitable edge by itself. The execution of this trade takes advantage of this. In this example am looking at a coin (DGB) that had a massive move to the upside and couldn't sustain those levels. It is worth noting that most coins hold a similar pattern to this one, however the more illiquid coins are only really tradeable on the first/second dump - whereas in this case it was easy to execute at anytime. Personally I traded this twice on the way down. Overall it's a really good "bread and butter setup", very helpful for learning how the market works; and honing your patience - but it's definitely not the be all and end all. Steps: (1) 2-3 separate order entries....