Review: 13-06-2017
Account Value: 2.60BTC @ 5:30am NZT 14/6/17.
Roughly breakeven past 24 hours, perhaps a slight negative. Today first day recording this, so don't know exact profit over the past 24 hours.
Definitely an under-performance over the past 24 hours. Really messed up PKB, and scratched out some ZEC (around 1160) to buy more PKB. Now holding the bag on PKB to some extent. AEON by far the best trade where it was solidly planned, and very textbook.
Lessons:
(1) Continue following the coins that I snag great washouts on. Likely opportunities in the near future on similar washes.
(2) Anticipate natural oscillations of coin and enter there. Even the more liquid ones have decent 5-10% oscillations which are a great way to cover risk.
(3) Focus on good entries, ignore directional bias.
AEON: Super textbook trade that really happy with. As usual don't have enough size on trades like this, and liquidity problem somewhat apparent. After the push around 8am from 3.5 to 5.5 I put scaling bids in at 4.56, 4.26, and one other entry sub 4.00. I got filled at 4.56 and 4.26, for a total of around 0.87BTC. Then sold half immediately just under 5, before ditching the rest just under 5 as well. Net profit on this trade was around 0.1BTC. Super clean, super quick, super textbook, and almost zero chance of losing money on a trade like this (assuming take profit quickly). Unfortunately I couldn't have done much more size than I did. Volume in the 30 minutes I did the entries on was around 6000AEON and I did 2k.
One thing I did really well on this was not confuse my great wash entry as a directional trade. In and out quickly.
Worth noting that opportunity persisted on this coin on washes for the next 8 hours or so. Good lesson here.
ZEC: Initiated a small position on this a few days ago. Have a strong directional bias to the upside. This is part of my quest to gain a stronger edge over the bigger picture; and thus reduce my dependency on liquidity. Was willing to add lower, and wanted to sell half into small pop to cover risk and hopefully recycle position.
I sold the half that I planned to flip into a pop at breakeven (11.60) to add to my PKB position.
Obviously this is the kind of behaviour that isn't constructive to engage in; and have been punished for it because 1244 was the price I planned to flip it at - even then it offered a nice 10% dip to get back into position.
Good lesson from this chart is the oscillations, as usual pick entry prices, don't enter at market.
PKB: Man where to start on this. Was one of those ones where I became directionally biased and that led me into trouble. Around the time when it made new highs I initiated a long position - it was oversized so I was aggressive in selling into pops and got half of it off in the range of 21ish, where it peaked at 24.
Problem arises in that I was too aggressive in buying back my position, so I ended up buying it back with a 2080 average; where the flush actually took it to 18 (too directionally biased!). Pretty obvious that's where good entry would be.
Recycled around position a little bit, but was generally just too damn greedy. I could have ditched it all on a pop around breakeven, but too damn directionally biased. The reality is that if I had a good entry I would ditch at least half there. Doing that would have allowed me to re-establish into the 15s - which would have lined up another good trade opportunity. Provided plenty of nail and bail type trades.
POT: Just one that missed because of PKB position. Very nice flush off the 8s into the 6s. It's interesting because I've identified multiple trades that could have been taken today; yet I've recently been thinking that the opportunity has been drying up. Clearly this is not the case.
Roughly breakeven past 24 hours, perhaps a slight negative. Today first day recording this, so don't know exact profit over the past 24 hours.
Definitely an under-performance over the past 24 hours. Really messed up PKB, and scratched out some ZEC (around 1160) to buy more PKB. Now holding the bag on PKB to some extent. AEON by far the best trade where it was solidly planned, and very textbook.
Lessons:
(1) Continue following the coins that I snag great washouts on. Likely opportunities in the near future on similar washes.
(2) Anticipate natural oscillations of coin and enter there. Even the more liquid ones have decent 5-10% oscillations which are a great way to cover risk.
(3) Focus on good entries, ignore directional bias.
AEON: Super textbook trade that really happy with. As usual don't have enough size on trades like this, and liquidity problem somewhat apparent. After the push around 8am from 3.5 to 5.5 I put scaling bids in at 4.56, 4.26, and one other entry sub 4.00. I got filled at 4.56 and 4.26, for a total of around 0.87BTC. Then sold half immediately just under 5, before ditching the rest just under 5 as well. Net profit on this trade was around 0.1BTC. Super clean, super quick, super textbook, and almost zero chance of losing money on a trade like this (assuming take profit quickly). Unfortunately I couldn't have done much more size than I did. Volume in the 30 minutes I did the entries on was around 6000AEON and I did 2k.
One thing I did really well on this was not confuse my great wash entry as a directional trade. In and out quickly.
Worth noting that opportunity persisted on this coin on washes for the next 8 hours or so. Good lesson here.
ZEC: Initiated a small position on this a few days ago. Have a strong directional bias to the upside. This is part of my quest to gain a stronger edge over the bigger picture; and thus reduce my dependency on liquidity. Was willing to add lower, and wanted to sell half into small pop to cover risk and hopefully recycle position.
I sold the half that I planned to flip into a pop at breakeven (11.60) to add to my PKB position.
Obviously this is the kind of behaviour that isn't constructive to engage in; and have been punished for it because 1244 was the price I planned to flip it at - even then it offered a nice 10% dip to get back into position.
Good lesson from this chart is the oscillations, as usual pick entry prices, don't enter at market.
Problem arises in that I was too aggressive in buying back my position, so I ended up buying it back with a 2080 average; where the flush actually took it to 18 (too directionally biased!). Pretty obvious that's where good entry would be.
Recycled around position a little bit, but was generally just too damn greedy. I could have ditched it all on a pop around breakeven, but too damn directionally biased. The reality is that if I had a good entry I would ditch at least half there. Doing that would have allowed me to re-establish into the 15s - which would have lined up another good trade opportunity. Provided plenty of nail and bail type trades.
POT: Just one that missed because of PKB position. Very nice flush off the 8s into the 6s. It's interesting because I've identified multiple trades that could have been taken today; yet I've recently been thinking that the opportunity has been drying up. Clearly this is not the case.
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