Review: 15-06-2017
Account Value: 2.88BTC.
PnL: +0.14BTC.
Really solid day, corrected yesterdays mistake of missing the grinder plays, which is more or less the sole reason I am up on the day.
PnL Breakdown:
INFX - +0.088BTC.
LMC - ~ -0.10BTC. Trade still in progress so will see how it pans out. Liquidation pnl is prob lower.
QRL - +0.118BTC.
SWIFT - +0.058BTC.
XST - +0.029BTC.
ZEC - ~ -0.05BTC.
As can see traded a lot of different coins, and did a great job of getting all the grinder setups. It was a bit of a shame cause they all seemed to occur at the same time, so was unable to smash them. Again, just shows I can't withdraw too much until I could do them all at once.
Of course, I need to withdraw a little to profit take, and to get my poloniex account.. So bit of a dilemma.
Todays big lesson comes down to liquidity. QRL I could have done 10-20BTC trades without any increased (liquidity) risk.
SWIFT, INFX, and XST could have been bigger (because they were small due to being in multiple positions)... But they would have been limited to 2-5BTC trades.
Then there's LMC. When I was trading it, it had 100BTC volume over last 24 hours. Now it currently has 22BTC volume over last 24 hours. And I have a 2BTC position in it. The liquidity is there for me to liquidate it at roughly a 10% cost (which I feel no need to do yet); but put simply the reward does not justify the risk trading something like this; with that size.
So: I have come across my first "coin specific" rule:
Should not be trading any more than 1% of volume. This is especially important because when I am trading the coins they have a higher volume than normal, so when it dies off my size could be 2-3% of volume (as has happened in this case, gone from 2% to 10%).
Other thing worth noting here, that once the uptrend has peaked, the quality coins can be scalped into the downtrend; but the more pumpy/less liquid ones provide less good risk-reward opportunities on the downside.
Something I did really well today was on LMC and that was recognising quite early that I was having liquidity problems and flipped some out on every pop. Flipside of that is, something I did poorly was that I should have recognised that it just wasn't even worth being in the trade and liquidated completely into those pops.
INFX: Not the cleanest trade in the world. I was initially trading the was before 12 from 2.5 to 1.8. I got an entry around avg 2.14. Didn't have the buying power to really load up in the sub 2s. Adjusted expectations and flipped for a 2.27avg. Meanwhile a big buyer stepped up and raced it to 3. So that was a bit of a shame! But it happens.
Later on when it peaked at 3.5 I traded the wash to 3. Really happy with adjustment because I narrowly missed the adds lower, but closed this one out at even recognising that I didn't want to hold it.
LMC: Actually got a really good entry price at 1106, with adds around this and under. Hasn't had a pop yet, and is arguably consolidating for next leg lower. I think from here it is toast though and am looking to flip into first pop (dead-cat bounce). However I am sticking with it for the pop because I am happy with my entry(s). Going forward the main thing is to realise that I may miss some other opportunities if I continue to pursue this (B type setup). But nothing really on radar at the moment, and there is a massive edge to getting a liquidity providing exit, so for now I'll wait.
QRL: 24 hour volume on this is around 4000 bitcoins; so could have done massive size on this. Really cool to see a textbook play that I could have flipped 20-40BTC on.
Other thing worth noting is that the volume makes it tradeable on the backside. Each pop against the dominate trend would be so much easier to liquidate (compared to trying to sell LMC on the backside).
SWIFT: Pretty standard can't complain.
XST: I bought this at 6.2 right where that date marker is, before I went to sleep. If I had more buying power (that wasn't tied up in LMC) this would have been a premo play to size into the 5s. Managed to sell near the peak of the rally back and then ditched the other half around scratch (when I woke up) because it went down further than expected.
ZEC: Has offered some great bounce opportunities to recycle position, which I would have taken advantage of if I had more BP. However today the trend trade triggered the "reason2sell" by going below the previous days low; and I got a nice exit quite a bit above that so quite happy. Trend trade was closed at 1414.
This exit would have been perfect if I had been recycling some of position along trend; but it's cool. Am still feeling out trend trades, and overall a great idea; and good patience.
PnL: +0.14BTC.
Really solid day, corrected yesterdays mistake of missing the grinder plays, which is more or less the sole reason I am up on the day.
PnL Breakdown:
INFX - +0.088BTC.
LMC - ~ -0.10BTC. Trade still in progress so will see how it pans out. Liquidation pnl is prob lower.
QRL - +0.118BTC.
SWIFT - +0.058BTC.
XST - +0.029BTC.
ZEC - ~ -0.05BTC.
As can see traded a lot of different coins, and did a great job of getting all the grinder setups. It was a bit of a shame cause they all seemed to occur at the same time, so was unable to smash them. Again, just shows I can't withdraw too much until I could do them all at once.
Of course, I need to withdraw a little to profit take, and to get my poloniex account.. So bit of a dilemma.
Todays big lesson comes down to liquidity. QRL I could have done 10-20BTC trades without any increased (liquidity) risk.
SWIFT, INFX, and XST could have been bigger (because they were small due to being in multiple positions)... But they would have been limited to 2-5BTC trades.
Then there's LMC. When I was trading it, it had 100BTC volume over last 24 hours. Now it currently has 22BTC volume over last 24 hours. And I have a 2BTC position in it. The liquidity is there for me to liquidate it at roughly a 10% cost (which I feel no need to do yet); but put simply the reward does not justify the risk trading something like this; with that size.
So: I have come across my first "coin specific" rule:
Should not be trading any more than 1% of volume. This is especially important because when I am trading the coins they have a higher volume than normal, so when it dies off my size could be 2-3% of volume (as has happened in this case, gone from 2% to 10%).
Other thing worth noting here, that once the uptrend has peaked, the quality coins can be scalped into the downtrend; but the more pumpy/less liquid ones provide less good risk-reward opportunities on the downside.
Something I did really well today was on LMC and that was recognising quite early that I was having liquidity problems and flipped some out on every pop. Flipside of that is, something I did poorly was that I should have recognised that it just wasn't even worth being in the trade and liquidated completely into those pops.
INFX: Not the cleanest trade in the world. I was initially trading the was before 12 from 2.5 to 1.8. I got an entry around avg 2.14. Didn't have the buying power to really load up in the sub 2s. Adjusted expectations and flipped for a 2.27avg. Meanwhile a big buyer stepped up and raced it to 3. So that was a bit of a shame! But it happens.
Later on when it peaked at 3.5 I traded the wash to 3. Really happy with adjustment because I narrowly missed the adds lower, but closed this one out at even recognising that I didn't want to hold it.
LMC: Actually got a really good entry price at 1106, with adds around this and under. Hasn't had a pop yet, and is arguably consolidating for next leg lower. I think from here it is toast though and am looking to flip into first pop (dead-cat bounce). However I am sticking with it for the pop because I am happy with my entry(s). Going forward the main thing is to realise that I may miss some other opportunities if I continue to pursue this (B type setup). But nothing really on radar at the moment, and there is a massive edge to getting a liquidity providing exit, so for now I'll wait.
QRL: 24 hour volume on this is around 4000 bitcoins; so could have done massive size on this. Really cool to see a textbook play that I could have flipped 20-40BTC on.
Other thing worth noting is that the volume makes it tradeable on the backside. Each pop against the dominate trend would be so much easier to liquidate (compared to trying to sell LMC on the backside).
SWIFT: Pretty standard can't complain.
XST: I bought this at 6.2 right where that date marker is, before I went to sleep. If I had more buying power (that wasn't tied up in LMC) this would have been a premo play to size into the 5s. Managed to sell near the peak of the rally back and then ditched the other half around scratch (when I woke up) because it went down further than expected.
ZEC: Has offered some great bounce opportunities to recycle position, which I would have taken advantage of if I had more BP. However today the trend trade triggered the "reason2sell" by going below the previous days low; and I got a nice exit quite a bit above that so quite happy. Trend trade was closed at 1414.
This exit would have been perfect if I had been recycling some of position along trend; but it's cool. Am still feeling out trend trades, and overall a great idea; and good patience.
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